Frank Rondel
An anonymous crypto gambler reportedly earned nearly $436,000 by placing a bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture just before it was officially confirmed, raising questions about potential use of inside information, according to Customreceipt. According to data from Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, wagers predicting that Maduro would no longer hold power by the end of January surged in the hours immediately preceding former President Donald Trump’s announcement on Truth Social that Maduro had been taken into US custody.
The winning account, which had joined Polymarket the previous month and made four separate positions all concerning Venezuela, turned an initial stake of $32,537 into over $436,000 (£322,000). The identity of the bettor remains unknown, with the account identified only by a string of alphanumeric characters on the blockchain.
Polymarket statistics indicate that the probability of Maduro’s removal was assessed at roughly 6.5% on the afternoon of Friday, January 2. However, by just before midnight, odds had climbed to 11%, continuing to rise in the early hours of January 3, suggesting a sudden surge in trading activity shortly before the public announcement. Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the significant payout.
Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a non-partisan organization advocating financial reform, told CBS, a US partner of the BBC, that “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.” A number of other Polymarket users also profited tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers on Maduro’s capture.
The unusual activity has drawn attention from lawmakers. Congressman Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, introduced legislation on Monday aimed at prohibiting government employees from engaging in trades on prediction markets if they possess “material nonpublic information” related to their wagers.
Prediction markets have grown significantly in the United States over recent years. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to place bets on a wide range of events, from sports outcomes to political developments. During the 2024 US presidential election, these platforms collectively handled hundreds of millions of dollars in bets.
While these markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration, they have generally encountered a more permissive regulatory environment under the Trump administration. Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s son, holds advisory positions with both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Although insider trading is illegal in traditional stock markets, the rules governing prediction markets remain comparatively lax. A Kalshi spokesperson stated that the platform “explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form, including government employees trading on prediction markets related to government activity.”
Earlier we wrote about Suspect Arrested for Allegedly Damaging Vice President JD Vance’s Ohio Residence.